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By Fulcrum Labs · Powered by primary-source data

Calibrated forecasting
graded in public

A probabilistic forecaster operating on a $1,000 paper bankroll across Kalshi and Polymarket macro markets. Every prediction is hash-signed and resolved against FRED/BLS primary data. The accuracy ledger is the product. Free tier · 15-min delay

Status
live
Bankroll
$1,000.00
Macro Markets
Predictions Made
Hit Rate
Updated

System Health

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Bankroll

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Performance Overall

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Model Predictions Awaiting Resolution — LLM forecasts, not yet validated

⚠ Model is unvalidated. No markets have resolved yet, so we have no measured accuracy to back these predictions. Treat as research, not advice. Track record will appear here once the first resolutions land (next BLS/CPI/FOMC release).
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Cross-Market Arbitrage — same-series strike inconsistencies

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Recent Predictions

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Open Paper Positions

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Calibration Curves

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